COWEN: Philip Tetlock has argued that, if we set up long-run tournaments with forecasting, and we measure results, and we test teams against each other, that we can, in the longer run, reduce, I think, both the noise and bias. Or what does it do in formal terms? Conversation with Tyler – Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise (2018) The Knowledge Project Podcast – Daniel Kahneman: Putting Your Intuition on Ice (2019) Lex Fridman Podcast #65 – Daniel Kahneman: Thinking Fast and Slow, Deep Learning, and AI (2020) Television interviews. Virtually all the literature and a lot of public conversation is about biases. I don’t think CEOs encounter many problems where they have intuitive expertise. It’s sort of boring. KAHNEMAN: Well, noise certainly, but then averaging does it. Because I’ve read conflicting theories there. KAHNEMAN: Directly, nothing. It’s amazing — within a decade, psychology has changed. KAHNEMAN: I’m optimistic on virtually nothing. They haven’t had the opportunity to acquire it, so they better slow down. It makes you more aware of thinking fast versus thinking slow? Is that their bias? And that made him very charismatic. “You seem to think that I think of bias all the time,” he tells Tyler. Sunk costs, by and large, I think, are a negative. In November, Kahneman joined Tyler for a live conversation about bias, noise and more, including happiness, memory, the replication crisis in psychology, advice to CEOs about improving decision-making, superforecasters, the influence of Freud, working in a second language, the value of intuition, and why he can’t help you win arguments with a spouse. KAHNEMAN: It’s a game one primarily plays with one’s spouse, and it doesn’t work, I think, by and large. It’s the only thing we get to keep. The questions that are of interest as a psychologist is, when can you simulate common sense? KAHNEMAN: That’s what would matter. So please get in line if you would like. COWEN: Personality psychology and five-factor personality theory — is that, for you, a useful way of thinking about human beings? It’s there. COWEN: If you were to express, what is the question about gender and your own work that interests you the most? I will call on you, and please, questions only. KAHNEMAN: I don’t like those kinds of explanations. As a normative principle — that consistency is the only normative principle — that strikes me as pretty odd. The problem with intuition is that it forms very quickly, so that you need to have special procedures in place to control it except in those rare cases — and Gary Klein and others have demonstrated that — where you have intuitive expertise. In November, Kahneman joined Tyler for a live conversation about bias, noise and more, including happiness, memory, the replication crisis in psychology, advice to CEOs about improving decision-making, superforecasters, the influence of Freud, working in a second language, the value of intuition, and why he can’t help you win arguments with a spouse. COWEN: If you miss a flight due to a traffic jam outside your control, would you rather be two hours late or just one minute late? And they don’t want to. RSS. In chapter 7, there is, basically, a theory of attention. Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise: You might be surprised by what occupies Daniel Kahneman's thoughts these days. Daniel Kahneman. COWEN: But at the margin, how would you modify, given —. how important good memories are relative to the experience itself, autistics — they have weaker framing effects, Freud’s two principles of mental functioning, started work on heuristics and biases with Amos Tversky. And there is a lot of bias in that direction. You can’t talk yourself out of the bias? You might be surprised by what occupies Daniel Kahneman’s thoughts. It would contribute more to noise than to bias, by the way, by and large. If you start making a long speech or statement, I will cut you off. We ought to have normative theories that are adapted to who we are as people, as humans. Expensive cases — we’re not talking of insuring cars. But I fight against that. I think I would feel free to probe, where does that strong wish come from? Do you have an opinion on that literature? To appreciate the distinction, think of your bathroom scale. Knowledge@Wharton. Whereas noise, you can be overconfident more easily, and we all know overconfidence —. Web. . That’s condition number one. This is what happens to ideas or to frameworks. My friend, Lord Laird, has started a movement that promotes happiness. Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise. Stream Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise by Conversations with Tyler from desktop or your mobile device The other collaborator is a brilliant Frenchman that you haven’t heard of. Stream Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise by Conversations with Tyler from desktop or your mobile device Why is that the equilibrium? Regret is what happens the next morning. COWEN: If we think of therapists, psychiatrists, internists who are trying somehow to fix, improve, or cure people — are they underinvesting in a knowledge of what might be called behavioral economics or your work on psychology? My guess now, that wherever people exercise judgment, there is noise. “You seem to think that I think of bias all the time,” he tells Tyler. Loss aversion being one of the main focuses throughout the book. COWEN: And you think even knowing about this doesn’t change that. KAHNEMAN: Overconfidence has many virtues. Bias, he believes, may be overdiagnosed, and he recommends assuming noise is the culprit in most decision-making errors. But once you have a machine making decisions, the conditions under which it’s a good idea for humans to override them are really well known and well understood. I mean, just randomness. Transcript and links Follow Tyler on Twitter More CWT goodness: Facebook Twitter Instagram Email, The Secret To Success with CJ, Karl, Jemal & Eric Thomas. And you find variability within individuals, depending morning, afternoon, hot, cold. Wednesday 19 December 2018. https://www.conversationswithtyler.com. There is the really serious question that people raise about computers, whether they know what they’re talking about, whether they understand what they’re talking about. Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise [audio] (cowenconvos.libsyn.com) +1 . COWEN: I can’t imagine why. I think it’s proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that when you have people making forecasts for the medium term — up to six months, say, in many situations — you can help people thinking carefully without any training, who do better than CIA analysts. Former Attorney General of Louisiana Charles C. Foti, Jr., Esq. One of them happens automatically, associatively, quickly. KAHNEMAN: I don’t think it’s a bias, no. He tweeted today, “If it weren’t for sunk costs and my respect for them, I wouldn’t ever get anything done.” What do you think? I write all of the posts and host all of the podcast episodes you'll find on the Evolving SEO blog.iam jsut exploring my knowledge and help other people by writing article related Hacking and current ugrades. COWEN: If you think of your own life, have you maximized happiness or the overall sense of how your life has gone? . COWEN: Do you think we overinvest or underinvest in memories, overall? That’s about the conditions under which it’s worth it. You might be surprised by what occupies Daniel Kahneman’s thoughts these days. KAHNEMAN: I would really probe. Home / Hacker News / New top story on Hacker News: Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise [audio] / Hacker News / New top story on Hacker News: Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise … To what extent should we think of bias as the main thing that gives our lives an overall structure, just as a musical soundtrack is what gives structure to a movie? So ends are very important for memories. Our choice of topic lent itself to a lot of things that are virtually impossible in other fields. What I mean by indirectly is that the air I breathe was influenced by Herbert Simon. After a year of that, you select the top 2 percent and you call them superforecasters. And I know that this is going to happen to everything that I believe. Or where does that come from? I don’t have an answer. We know that when you get a new CEO in place in organizations, the new CEO has one big advantage. nobody actually today would, I think, claim that even the most sophisticated programs have it. And certainly, the person who sells me the shoes feels no loss aversion for the shoes. KAHNEMAN: Altogether, I don’t think that people maximize happiness in that sense. COWEN: Well, sports. And that’s one of the reasons that I actually left the field of happiness, in that I was very interested in maximizing experience, but this doesn’t seem to be what people want to do. AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes, sir. You might be surprised by what occupies Daniel Kahneman’s thoughts. Should one wish that it weren’t? And they do not regress to the mean; that is, the second year they’re just about as good as the first year. There’s a great deal of that happening. It will make them more appealing to others, they will get more resources, and they will take risks. COWEN: If you think about the issue of, when people think about the world, they find some kind of transactions repugnant. It’s going to be worsened, and everybody will have much higher confidence in their biased views because other people share them. Human nature hasn’t changed. Whether it’s too much or too little, it probably depends a lot on people’s amount of consumption of memory that people engage in. . KAHNEMAN: But that AI is developing faster than anybody could have anticipated — no question. So the net effect . Now, what we found was 50 percent, 5–0, which, by the way, means that those underwriters were absolutely wasting their time, in the sense of assessing risk. 01:09:17 ITUNES RSS LINK. I, for one, am certainly biased. And the idea of consistency — it’s completely infeasible for a finite mind, and we have finite minds. 212 Daniel Kahneman (Feb 16 2014) Long Now: Daniel Kahneman: Thinking Fast and Slow (Aug 14, 2013) KAHNEMAN: What it does is, it makes you look for funny things about . KAHNEMAN: The rational-agent models are built on the notion of consistency being the one guiding principle. COWEN: And just take more time on each decision. “You seem to think that I think of bias all the time,” he tells Tyler. The expected utility of taking risks in the economy is probably moderately negative. Then, of course, you can achieve more rational results than you could. How You Really Make Decisions – Horizon (BBC TV series) – Series 2013–2014 No. There are other things that seem to matter. He feels that he can use his mind and that he can speak his mind, and it’s going to be wonderful for his future. He writes very easily, and I write with difficulty, so it’s not an accident that we teamed up. (2011). KAHNEMAN: There were whole sets of results that I published in Thinking, Fast and Slow that I wish I hadn’t published because they’re not reliable. In fact, you feel pride if a stranger who lives on your street gets a prize. COWEN: Another iPad question. Actually, the thing that, when I think about him, it was the mental energy, just the joy of thinking and the mental energy. If you made a list of intelligent ways to go at problems, that’s what people do. KAHNEMAN: And in the United States, optimism is clearly a desirable trait. Optimism is valuable, much more than overconfidence. I really don’t think of bias that much. Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise Dec. 19, 2018. KAHNEMAN: Because of sunk costs. COWEN: That people aren’t switching their attention to the new problem? Say for example you participate in the lottery where you have a 1/5 chances of winning $100,000,000 and you're the only participant. He feels very free in an intelligence unit. Post a Comment. Like 58 percent. You have 50 people reading a case and putting a dollar value on it. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share by Email. Or is it just a cost we would like to minimize? KAHNEMAN: And yeah, there are similarities. That’s a technical problem — how long it will take to get the cleanup, the last 1 percent. It’s true for chess masters. Conversation with Tyler – Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise (2018) The Knowledge Project Podcast – Daniel Kahneman: Putting Your Intuition on Ice (2019) Lex Fridman Podcast #65 – Daniel Kahneman: Thinking Fast and Slow, Deep Learning, and AI (2020) Television interviews. We are context dependent, so our emotions are context dependent. There is such a thing as indignation, as moral disgust. When it was done, I realized that it resembled chapter 7 quite a bit. . KAHNEMAN: We certainly invest heavily, heavily in memories. And is recognition-primed decision-making still useful? That if you really know how many people are better than you are, which, say, a chess player might, there’s something psychologically oppressive to being downgraded. There is an interesting fact — that noise and bias are independent sources of error, so that reducing either of them improves overall accuracy. AUDIENCE MEMBER: You mentioned earlier that you view many things in the world through a basic lens of pessimism. And I thought that, in a way, it can be an advantage to operate in a second language, that there are certain things . KAHNEMAN: I think there’s no question that there are cultural differences. All gifts will support the show’s production, including future live podcast recordings like this one. If there is a selection process, evolution works on noise. . COWEN: Do you side with the analysts, such as Martin Ford, who see really a very large number of jobs being potentially automatable with artificial intelligence, machine learning? To start with the questions here. COWEN: Right now in psychology, in your own work, what are the open questions you’re most interested in? The idea of two systems is really anchored in a basic sort of fact of experience, that the process by which you get 2 plus 2 is fundamentally different from the way that you get 17 by 24. If you enjoy Conversation with Tyler, consider making a year-end donation at ConversationsWithTyler.com/donate. . Message board - Online Community of active, educated investors researching and discussing Braskem S.A. Stocks. In many situations, it’s completely insignificant, but a striking result. We’re conditioned to have them under some conditions. There’s some papers, for instance, showing that autistics — they have weaker framing effects, smaller endowment effects, maybe because top-down processing works in a different way. You’re consuming bias, right? iTunes . Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise [audio] (libsyn.com) 61 points by gmishuris 43 days ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 10 comments skagar 42 days ago And do you think that something like increased migration or open borders would dissolve these cultural differences and push toward a more optimal equilibrium? DANIEL KAHNEMAN: Well, if you want good memories, good endings are really important. Do you agree? You run machine learning on papers, you find what correlates with a good paper, you put the paper through the program. I was just wondering, do you think that there are some cultural aspects that are costly and some that are really good? Daniel Kahneman (Nobel 2002) is of course known for his extensive work on behavioral biases and how they affect economic decisions. I’ve never been very interested in individual differences and not in gender either, so I don’t know. . I created an interviewing system for the whole army. Or . It’s probably a force that induces better behavior in lots of people who would not be controlled in other ways. But whether it has changed anything significant, I doubt it. COWEN: But the idea of attention-switching costs — so Israeli bus drivers, it takes time for them to switch attention from one event to another. It’s not exactly a bias, and it’s not necessarily . Thinking Fast and Slow. But in addition, one would want a normative theory that takes into account human nature, which the principle of consistency doesn’t. Looking back on your collaboration with Amos Tversky, which has been written about widely, of course — there’s the famous Michael Lewis book. By Tyler Cowan for the Mercatus Center. . KAHNEMAN: Break the decision up. The diagnosis is now better done by programs than by people, and they are not going to need the person very often. Are you asking me as a parent, say? he’s not a statistician, is he? Read Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise by with a free trial. All I do know is that, when we pointed out the results, the bewildering results of the experiment on underwriters, and there was another unit — people who assess the size of claims. So that postponed it to spring 2021. Then he got bored with that, and he got a PhD. Sunk cost is a fairly specific thing. So you take all the auditors, and you somehow construct a weighted average? Do you share the same opinion or not? And that’s basically what creates superforecasters. COWEN: A society such as Argentina that relies so heavily on psychoanalysis — as a psychologist, do you see that as bias? KAHNEMAN: In the sense that this is a norm, and there are things that we’re trained or socialized to find disgusting, to find repugnant. Note: A select number of articles and book chapters, as well as the entire text of Dr. Kahneman's 1973 book Attention and Effort, are available online. They’re asked to write on that sticker “cyanide” and to stick it on the juice and then to drink the juice. While Kahneman has spent much of his career studying bias, he is now focused on noise. No signup or install needed. New top story on Hacker News: Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise [audio] Get link; Facebook; Twitter; Pinterest; Email; Other Apps; December 28, 2018 Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise [audio] 38 by gmishuris | 7 comments. It may be true, and yet you were completely uninfluenced by that. By what percentage do people differ? Otherwise, there’ve been many experiments, and when people override formulas, by and large, they do worse than if they hadn’t. COWEN: So you’re pessimistic about the ability of psychologists to develop structural explanations of where feelings of repugnance come from. There may be some resemblance. COWEN: If you had a perfectly rational, pure Bayesian, would anyone else trust that person? COWEN: But say it were always transparent who would be the winners and who would be the losers from a given decision. You can ask in the sense that they are driven by something that didn’t happen, that could have happened but didn’t. Some of these emotions seem to be completely superfluous, like regret. Of course, it affected the whole zeitgeist; it affected the whole culture. They look facile to me. And there is a common answer that you find, when I just talk to people and ask them, or the executives had the same answer. But when there is no selection, noise is just a cost. Here's a précis of Kahneman's current thinking on this and other topics, drawn from an interview with Tyler Cowen (both video and a transcript are available at "Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise," December 19, 2018). Of that I’m quite confident. … Do you see any benefit to shame? KAHNEMAN: It’s beautiful research. They actually want to maximize their satisfaction with themselves and with their lives. KAHNEMAN: No, I don’t know it well enough. "If you have different people who are going to reach a decision together, the noise reduction technique is to have every one of them write down their answer before the discussion," he says. Wednesday 19 December 2018. https://www.conversationswithtyler.com. Google, for example, when it hires people, they have a minimum of four individuals making independent assessments of each candidate. KAHNEMAN: About shame, I really have no idea. Bias and noise do not cover the universe. And you really could make a difference. Braskem S.A. Bias, no — if there is a general bias, unless the people who are unbiased also know that they are unbiased, unless they have a way of being sure, so that they can invest more than others and move the price toward the correct answer. You need to say what you think.” Or we don’t know? It’s too long a story, but I was exposed to chapter 7 in The Interpretation of Dreams, and I spent a summer studying chapter 7 in The Interpretation of Dreams. 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